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Henry Alexander Wittke

Artificial Intelligence, page I - VIII

An Approach to Assess the Impact on the Information Economy

1. Edition 2020, ISBN print: 978-3-8288-4459-9, ISBN online: 978-3-8288-7480-0, https://doi.org/10.5771/9783828874800-I

Tectum, Baden-Baden
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Te ct um Henry Alexander Wittke Artificial Intelligence An Approach to Assess the Impact on the Information Economy Henry Alexander Wittke Artificial Intelligence Henry Alexander Wittke Artificial Intelligence An Approach to Assess the Impact on the Information Economy Tectum Verlag Henry Alexander Wittke Artificial Intelligence An Approach to Assess the Impact on the Information Economy © Tectum - ein Verlag in der Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden 2020 eBook 978-3-8288-7480-0 (Dieser Titel ist zugleich als gedrucktes W erk unter der ISBN 978-3-8288-4459-9 im Tectum Verlag erschienen.) Umschlaggestaltung: Tectum Verlag, unter Verwendung des Bildes # 587929622 von buffaloboy | www. shutterstock.com Alle Rechte vorbehalten Informationen zum Verlagsprogramm finden Sie unter www.tectum-verlag.de Bibliografische Informationen der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Angaben sind im Internet uber http://dnb.ddb.de abrufbar. Foreword The fact that democracies are changing during the process of digitaliza tion is undisputed today. The political handling of these changes will be decisive for the (our) future. Minor challenges arise in those (few) areas in which current trends can simply be extrapolated. However, major po litical and social challenges arise from "black swans", events that divide the course of time into a "before" and an "after". Artificial intelligence (AI) is both, a minor and a major political challenge: On the one hand, usage of weak AI leads to rapid but anticipatable developments. On the other hand, the development of strong AI is a "black swan", an "event horizon", beyond which serious (political) analysis is impossible. During his time in Hamburg, Henry Wittke and I have often debated about artificial intelligence. Our discussions at the time - especially on A I’s impact on the economy - marked the starting point of a long line of dialogues he had with cutting-edge experts in the US, particularly at Harvard University. The insights and findings are documented in this monograph. Which impact will AI have on the Information Economy and on society within the next 10-15 years? Will political systems be able to support the beneficial uses of AI while softening the malicious side effects? Henry Wittke addresses these issues in a rigorous and very thoughtful manner. His insights are important for decision makers as well as citizens: During the next five years, he predicts merely a minor transformation of the character of human-machine interaction at work, but not a fundamental change in the structure of the economy. No reason to worry, then? Cer tainly not, since according to Wittke, things will look different in 15 years’ time: widespread use of strong AI will have significantly reduced the number and importance of human-machine tandems at work. More jobs will have been destroyed than new ones created - even in the infor mation sector. This may lead to social upheavals and unrest, unparalleled in the recent history of western democracies. So, it’s high time to talk about the political and social side-effects of AI. This book is a timely and thoughtful offer to start this endeavor. Gary S. Schaal v VI Table of Contents 1. In tro d u c tio n ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Relevance and “Problem Puzzle” ...................................................................... 1 1.2. Theoretical Approach..........................................................................................3 1.3. Structure of the Thesis........................................................................................5 2. A rtific ia l In te llig ence ............................................................................................6 2.1. Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence................................................................ 7 2.2. Different TypesofA l........................................................................................... 9 2.2.1. WeakAI vs. Strong A l................................................................................. 9 2.2.2. Al Definition for the Analysis......................................................................12 2.3. Place Value ofA l in the Economy.................................................................... 13 3. In form ation S o c ie ty ...........................................................................................17 3.1. The Birth ofa Concept...................................................................................... 18 3.2. Basic Characteristics......................................................................................... 20 3.2.1. The Rise of ICT...........................................................................................22 3.2.2. Employment Inside the Information Society.............................................24 3.2.3. The Information Economy..........................................................................27 3.3. Information Society and A l................................................................................29 3.4. Hypotheses........................................................................................................32 4. M ethodo logy........................................................................................................ 33 5. A na lys is o fA l in the In form ation E conom y...............................................34 5.1. Education...........................................................................................................34 5.2. Information Services..........................................................................................40 5.3. Information Machines........................................................................................44 5.4. Media of Communication.................................................................................. 47 5.5. Research and Development............................................................................. 50 6. Interim C onclus ion and H ypotheses........................................................... 51 6.1. Evaluation ofthe FirstAnalysis........................................................................ 51 6.2. Hypothesesforthe Second Analysis...............................................................53 7. Supposed Consequences o f A l .....................................................................54 7.1. Short- Midterm Szenario: Increasing Human-Machine Integration and Transformation.......................................................................................................... 60 7.2. Mid- Longterm Szenario: Discussing e.g. Massive Unemployment, Inequality and other Security Issues........................................................................................ 62 8. D ifferent M odels o f Politica l R eactions.......................................................64 8.1. Retraining, Focus on Education and Prepare a NewWorkforce................... 65 8.2. Discourse of a Basic Income............................................................................67 9. C ritica l Review .....................................................................................................70 10. C onc lus ion ......................................................................................................... 72 Refe rences................................................................................................................ 77 VII VIII

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Abstract

The ongoing and seemingly unstoppable digital transformation brings forth new options, opportunities but also challenges to individuals, organizations, companies and societies alike. Governments are alarmed, realizing the potential consequences on the workforce, while also being apparently helpless against uncontrollable and powerful digital players such as Google or Facebook. As Henry Wittke shows, recent breakthroughs in the field of machine learning increase the potential of Artificial Intelligence to disrupt the world’s largest industries. Wittke attempts to provide a basic framework of what constitutes AI as well as to assess its impact on the Information Economy. What happens in case of rising mass unemployment or social inequality? What will be the effect on labor as a value system for today’s societies? Could the entire notion of capitalism be questioned in the wake of AI? The book aims to draw conclusions and give recommendations to policymakers.