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6. Interim Conclusion and Hypotheses in:

Henry Alexander Wittke

Artificial Intelligence, page 51 - 53

An Approach to Assess the Impact on the Information Economy

1. Edition 2020, ISBN print: 978-3-8288-4459-9, ISBN online: 978-3-8288-7480-0, https://doi.org/10.5771/9783828874800-51

Tectum, Baden-Baden
Bibliographic information
Compared to the already analyzed industries of the information economy there are also almost no qualitative data, makes it hard to discuss possi ble use-cases of strong AI in the future within this field. So the following paragraph might be more theoretical what could be changed within this sub-segment. However, it seems interesting to note that applications could arise within this field that focuses on the cooperation between scientists and ma chines. Both regarding knowledge acquisition, as well as in the evalua tion of large data sets, a virtual scientist based on strong AI could be im aginable. In the long run, for example, it would be conceivable that sci entists must not collect data themselves. By that, they would focus on more complex tasks, which could only be done by a human scientist. In tending to development, AI could take over a part of control tasks for the goal realizations in the form of an omniscient virtual guide in real time. Even tasks such as feedback and risk assessment in advance of a planned development project would be conceivable. In summary, there are clear limits to the impact of strong AI in this area. Based on the qualitative Analysis there are no scientific contri butions yet how to revolutionize this field with strong AI. 6. Interim Conclusion and Hypotheses 6.1. Evaluation ofthe First Analysis The previous analysis of sub-segments of the information economy ac cording to Machlup’s framework has delivered various indications, that strong AI will have a profound impact on the information economy and information society. The currently present scope of AI has already pro duced changes. While supporting the notion that AI increases efficiency and productivity. Considering the analyzed potential of strong AI, it can be further well argued that AI can replace human labor. However, it is uncertain to determine yet that labor replacement takes place “only” in the form of human-machine interaction or by a more complete takeover of AI, substituting human work activity even too much higher degree. The industry sector analysis was undertaken in the previous chapter ra ther points to the human-machine scenario. In a comparison of the individual case studies, it is also to be assumed that more digitized areas such as financial services will be affected more 51 quickly by strong AI than less digitized ones like education sector. In consequence, digitalization is a basis for strong AI. Returning to the hypotheses stipulated in chapter three applied to the subsequent analysis, the following conclusion may be allowed. (a) The occupational structures resulting from todays information societies will be affected by massive labor market changes due to strong AI. As a consequence, AI has the potential to disrupt the main subdivisions of the information economy. Changes will be deep and profound in many areas of the Information Economy. Efficiency gains resulting from strong AI will be strong. Even so strong that many human jobs, will become obsolete or only carried out in different ways and in conjunction with AI. The trend will first on ly apply to rather simpler tasks but will also later extend to more and more complex jobs. The changes to the job structures of information so cieties already occurring as described in chapter three will continue. On the labor market, demand will shift to ever higher and differently quali fied employees, the lower skilled workforce will be at the detriment. In addition, it could also be argued that Strong AI would mean that no longer only people are competing for a particular job with each other, but also the AI system with people. By that, even the highest skilled knowledge worker could end up with machines doing theirjobs. So, in both cases, the effect on occupation structures within the in formation economy will be, and the first thesis can be confirmed by the analysis so far. However, as a limitation of the analysis, it needs to be stated, that only a few sectors of the information economy have been looked at. Further research may confirm the conclusions made here but could also show different conflicting outcomes. The second hypothesis relates to the potential advantages of strong AI: (b) The beginning of strong AI seems to be the key for the infor mation society to work more efficiently with the upcoming al most unmeasurable amounts of data and their complexity. AI can perform better than every single knowledge worker could do. As a consequence, the disruptive impact of strong AI will change the concept of knowledge workers as well as their rele vance as their range of tasks within the Information Economy. 52 Based on the analysis undertaken on industry segments in chapter five, it can also be assumed that AI leads to higher productivity. Information workers used AI as an ICT product, processing higher amounts of data more efficiently. However, the extent to which this might materialize, in particular for strong AI yielding more results and higher productivity as a knowledge worker can achieve, is strongly subject to the degree of complexity of individual jobs in and across industry segments. Further investigations are required here. Nevertheless, considering the results of the case stud ies, it can be hardly disputed that AI will be increasingly deployed, thus resulting in profound changes on the required skills sets for knowledge workers as well as changing the ways and means to do theirjobs. As illustrated in chapter three, Drucker sees his productivity as the most valuable asset in the 21st century. Considering time frames, in a first wave of AI deployment, the productivity of information workers will be increased using intelligent systems and applications in the form of human-machine interaction. The use of smartphones connected to de vices and machines to process data and generate transactions is only on the example here. In a second wave, strong AI could even substitute knowledge workers by providing better efficiency and productivity as a knowledge worker could achieve. 6.2. Hypotheses for the Second Analysis The previous case studies of the information economy after Machlup have shown that substantial effects of AI deployment can be expected in at least four of the five sub-industry segments analyzed. This gives rise to the following questions: What will happen on a macro level if strong AI more or less simultaneously and equally effects all micro-levels? Are actions to countervail effects of AI on societal, political or governmental levels required? And if so, which actions might produce which required results? To attempt to answer these questions, the dimension of AI impacts on the macro-level shall be discussed using the following hypothesis: (a) Strong AI can mean the erosion of today's information econo my by affecting employment in the way that it will destroy more jobs than creating new ones for the same educated work force. 53

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Abstract

The ongoing and seemingly unstoppable digital transformation brings forth new options, opportunities but also challenges to individuals, organizations, companies and societies alike. Governments are alarmed, realizing the potential consequences on the workforce, while also being apparently helpless against uncontrollable and powerful digital players such as Google or Facebook. As Henry Wittke shows, recent breakthroughs in the field of machine learning increase the potential of Artificial Intelligence to disrupt the world’s largest industries. Wittke attempts to provide a basic framework of what constitutes AI as well as to assess its impact on the Information Economy. What happens in case of rising mass unemployment or social inequality? What will be the effect on labor as a value system for today’s societies? Could the entire notion of capitalism be questioned in the wake of AI? The book aims to draw conclusions and give recommendations to policymakers.